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News Release No. 66, June 2004
By David S. Jones
Surely you’ve heard about the housing boom. It’s been
in all the newspapers.
At the beginning of the 20th century, less than
half of all Americans owned their own homes. Today, low interest rates have
pushed homeownership rates to a record 68 percent, and that figure is still
climbing. Experts say it will exceed 70 percent by 2013.
Millions more new homeowners are coming down the road. As many
as 1.63 million new households could be formed every year for the next decade.
That translates to 2.17 million new homes needed annually.
Most of the new homes — 72 percent — will be
conventionally built, single-family dwellings. Multifamily units will account
for nearly one-fifth, and manufactured homes will take up the slack.
These new waves of homebuyers will find homes cost more than
they do today. No surprise there. Prices should appreciate an average of 5
percent per year from 2004 to 2013. And in those places where land-use
restrictions and regulations reduce the amount of land available for new homes,
homebuyers could rise an average of 6 percent annually.
In a new report, “America’s Home Forecast: The Next Decade
for Housing and Mortgage Finance,” six noted economists look at housing in the
years ahead. They paint a picture of a housing sector continuing to drive the
economy, creating millions of jobs and generating billions of dollars in wages
and tax revenues each year.
Ten years from now, experts say 24 million more homebuyers
will be enjoying their first homes. In the coming decade, America’s families
could need 125 million mortgage loans for home purchase or refinancing. That’s
some $27 trillion in mortgage originations.
At the end of last year, America’s homes had a whopping
market value of $15.2 trillion, the most ever. That’s one-third higher than it
was just three years ago. At the same time, equity in American homes reached
$8.4 trillion.
“The dramatic strength of the housing sector in recent years
clearly was fueled by historically low interest rates, strong increases in house
values and very positive demographic trends,” notes the report. “In the
spring of 2004, the overall economic expansion appears to be gaining more
strength and better balance, and interest rates are bound to move up to some
degree as the U.S. economy grows at an above-trend rate and as slack in labor
markets is reduced in the process.”
The authors of the report do, however, see some challenges
that need prompt attention. They see increasingly stringent land-use controls
pushing up house prices, impairing affordability in some areas. Also, increasing
strains on the long-term federal budget may threaten programs that provide
affordable rental housing for low-income households.
Some worry that proposed regulations could impair the
secondary mortgage market. Also, an increasingly diverse population will
challenge homebuilders, real estate professionals and the housing finance sector
to meet differing expectations and needs of a growing number of foreign-born
households.
Lastly, the report’s authors are concerned about the
“glaring and persistent gap” between homeownership rates for non-Hispanic
white households and racial and ethnic minorities.
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